泸州老窖2024Q3点评：健康发展优先

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 performance with revenue of 7.399 billion yuan (up 0.67%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.566 billion yuan (up 2.58%) [1] - The company aims to prioritize healthy development, focusing on channel inventory reduction and maintaining a stable pricing system [1] - The report indicates that the company’s revenue growth is primarily driven by mid-tier products, with expectations for slight growth in Guojiao 1573 due to subdued demand during the holiday season [1] - The report highlights a decrease in contract liabilities by 7.96% year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining channel health [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 88.12%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.53 percentage points [1] - The net profit margin improved by 0.78 percentage points to 48.13% [1] - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 32.798 billion, 35.380 billion, and 39.352 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.5%, 7.9%, and 11.2% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 14.290 billion, 15.487 billion, and 17.468 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 7.9%, 8.4%, and 12.8% respectively [2][3] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 14, 13, and 12 times respectively [1] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 4.21, 3.49, and 2.95 for the same years [2] - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratios are projected at 9.36, 8.61, and 6.64 [2]