XIAOMI(01810) 光大证券·2024-11-03 03:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) [3] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's 3Q24 revenue is expected to increase by 28 1% YoY to RMB 908 billion with Non-IFRS net profit projected to grow by 4% YoY to RMB 6 2 billion [2] - The IoT business is anticipated to see robust revenue growth exceeding 20% YoY in 3Q24 with毛利率 potentially surpassing 20% [2] - Xiaomi's automotive business achieved a milestone with 20 000 units delivered in October 2024 and the SU7 Ultra量产版 positioned in the premium segment with a pre-sale price of RMB 814 900 [2] - The company's 2024 R&D investment is expected to exceed RMB 14 billion [2] Market Data - Xiaomi Group's total market capitalization stands at HKD 6813 21 billion with a total share capital of 24 957 billion shares [1] - The stock's one-year low high range is HKD 11 84-27 45 with a three-month turnover rate of 72 5% [1] - The stock has shown strong performance with a 1M 3M and 1Y relative return of 26 8% 37 3% and 63 5% respectively [1] Financial Performance - Xiaomi's 3Q24 smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 3% YoY to 42 8 million units with ASP rising by 10% YoY to around RMB 1100 [2] - The company's 3Q24 smartphone毛利率 is projected to be at a yearly low of 11-12% but is expected to improve in 4Q24 [2] - The internet business is forecasted to maintain steady growth with a slight环比 decline in毛利率 due to seasonal advertising and e-commerce investments [2] Future Projections - Xiaomi's 2024-2026 Non-IFRS net profit forecasts have been上调 to RMB 238 289 and 347 billion respectively [2] - The company's 2024E 2025E and 2026E revenues are projected to be RMB 352 820 million RMB 427 584 million and RMB 488 526 million respectively [4] - The adjusted P E ratios for 2024E 2025E and 2026E are 26 21 and 18 respectively [4] Business Segments - The smartphone segment is expected to contribute RMB 188 481 million in 2024E followed by IoT and lifestyle products at RMB 98 609 million and internet services at RMB 33 198 million [4] - The automotive segment is projected to generate RMB 30 576 million in 2024E with significant growth expected in subsequent years [4] Financial Position - Xiaomi's total assets are forecasted to increase from RMB 273 507 million in 2022 to RMB 468 711 million in 2026 [5] - The company's cash and short-term investments are expected to grow from RMB 61 439 million in 2022 to RMB 175 823 million in 2026 [5] - Total liabilities are projected to rise from RMB 129 584 million in 2022 to RMB 236 881 million in 2026 [5] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from RMB -4 390 million in 2022 to RMB 42 457 million in 2026 [6] - Free cash flow is projected to grow from RMB 3 247 million in 2022 to RMB 27 547 million in 2026 [6] - Net cash flow is forecasted to rise from RMB 3 304 million in 2022 to RMB 40 370 million in 2026 [6]