CTGR(600905) 国信证券·2024-11-03 04:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][4][17]. Core Views - The company's revenue has increased due to growth in electricity generation, but net profit has declined due to falling electricity prices [1][8]. - The company is advancing its renewable energy projects, which are expected to drive future growth in installed capacity [3][17]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to several factors, including an increase in grid parity electricity and fluctuations in market transactions affecting overall electricity prices [1][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.76 billion yuan (+12.81%) and a net profit of 5.09 billion yuan (-6.31%) [1][8]. - In Q3 2024, revenue reached 6.70 billion yuan (+19.97%) with a net profit of 1.06 billion yuan (+14.69%) [1][8]. - The decline in net profit is due to increased grid parity electricity, changes in electricity structure, and a 46.23% drop in investment income from associates [1][8]. Electricity Generation - In Q3 2024, total electricity generation was 16.49 billion kWh (+38.05%), with wind power generation at 9.18 billion kWh (+24.08%) and solar power generation at 6.78 billion kWh (+62.74%) [2][11]. - The company has seen significant growth in both onshore and offshore wind power generation [11]. Project Development - The company plans to invest in the Xinjiang Southern Taklamakan Desert renewable energy base project, which will include 8.5 million kW of solar and 4 million kW of wind capacity [3][17]. - The total investment for the Southern base project is estimated at 71.85 billion yuan, with a construction period of 3-4 years [3][17]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards due to the impact of declining electricity prices, with expected net profits of 7.00 billion yuan, 8.00 billion yuan, and 8.90 billion yuan respectively [4][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.25 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.31 yuan for the respective years [4][17].