源杰科技：3Q营收同比高增，数通光芯片供需紧张加速验证

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 91% for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 178 million yuan, although it faced a net loss of 550,000 yuan compared to a profit of 21.45 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The revenue growth is attributed to a recovery in the optical chip industry, while the losses are primarily due to high shipment ratios of low-margin products, increased R&D investments, and reduced government subsidies and investment income [1][5]. - The telecommunications market remains competitive, with the company’s gross margin declining to 22%, down 17 percentage points year-on-year and 10 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 58.02 million yuan, marking an 82% increase year-on-year but a 3% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 22%, reflecting the impact of intensified price competition, particularly in the 2.5G product segment, which has seen negative margins [2]. Market Demand and Supply - There is a strong demand for 400G and 800G products, with supply constraints expected to persist into Q4 2024. The demand for 800G is projected to grow further, while the demand for 400G may gradually decline [3]. - The tight supply situation for optical chips is anticipated to ease next year as silicon photonics shipments increase and manufacturers expand production capacity [3]. Research and Development - The company significantly increased its R&D investment to 36.02 million yuan in the first three quarters, a 59% year-on-year increase, accounting for 20% of its revenue [4]. - The R&D focus includes advancements in silicon photonics, EML, and 50G PON products, with several products at various stages of development and production [4]. Financial Forecasts - Due to the losses reported in Q3, the profit forecasts for 2024 have been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 1.8 million yuan, 14.9 million yuan, and 23.5 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from breakthroughs in domestic and international markets for CW light sources and high-speed EML products [5].