TONGWEI CO.,LTD(600438) 民生证券·2024-11-03 06:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 68.272 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 38.73%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 3.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 124.37% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.47%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.03% [1] - The report highlights that the decline in polysilicon costs and the seasonal drop in electricity prices during the wet season have helped narrow the losses in Q3 2024 [1] - The company is expected to have a polysilicon production capacity exceeding 850,000 tons by the end of 2024, with plans to acquire at least 51% of Runyang shares, which will further increase its market share [1] - The company is expanding its N-type battery production capacity, with expectations to reach over 130-150 GW by 2026 [1] - The report forecasts revenues of 105.832 billion yuan, 135.453 billion yuan, and 159.172 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at -5.33 billion yuan, 4.327 billion yuan, and 7.2 billion yuan for the same years [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net loss of 844 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 127.84%, but a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 63.98% [1] - The company recorded a total revenue of 139.104 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 105.832 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of -23.9% [2][4] Production Capacity - The company has over 650,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon production capacity, with plans to increase this to over 850,000 tons by the end of 2024 [1] - The N-type battery production capacity is expected to exceed 100 GW by the end of 2024, with further expansions planned [1] Market Position - The acquisition of Runyang is expected to enhance the company's overseas market presence and production capacity in regions such as the United States, Thailand, and Vietnam [1] - The report emphasizes the company's cost advantages in polysilicon and the competitive edge of its battery products [1]