KSTAR(002518) 华福证券·2024-11-03 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][12] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with revenue of 2.912 billion yuan, down 28.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 357 million yuan, down 48.41% year-on-year [1][4] - The pressure from high overseas household storage inventory is suppressing the company's performance, but a recovery in shipments is expected as downstream inventory is gradually digested [2][4] - The company's profitability improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with a gross margin of 33.11% and a net margin of 34.61% in Q3 2024, despite year-on-year declines [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.912 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.43%, and a net profit of 357 million yuan, a decrease of 48.41% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.020 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.78%, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, down 27.86% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 33.11%, down 2.04 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.16 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 34.61%, down 22.87 percentage points year-on-year but up 14.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Due to slower-than-expected inventory reduction in Europe, the company's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 4.668 billion yuan, 5.928 billion yuan, and 7.362 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, 27%, and 24% [4] - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 602 million yuan, 723 million yuan, and 906 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -29%, 20%, and 25% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 19, 15, and 12 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]