千禾味业：Q3业绩有所承压，长期增长逻辑清晰

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [4][11]. Core Views - The company experienced pressure on its Q3 performance, with a revenue decline of 1.85% year-on-year to 2.288 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 9.19% to 352 million yuan [1]. - Despite the challenges in Q3, the long-term growth logic remains clear, with the company actively adapting to market changes by expanding product categories and channels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.288 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 352 million yuan, down 9.19% [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenues were 699 million yuan, reflecting a 12.63% decline year-on-year, while net profit fell by 22.58% to 101 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin improved to 37.54%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin decreased to 14.45%, down 1.86 percentage points [3]. Sales Performance - The sales of key products such as soy sauce and vinegar faced significant declines, with revenues dropping 13.82% and 15.67% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The distribution channels also showed weakness, with revenue from the distribution channel down 17.32% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and enhancing its distribution channels, including a significant investment in a new 300,000-ton soy sauce production line [3]. - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 519 million yuan, 605 million yuan, and 702 million yuan, respectively [4].