Wangfujing(600859) 东吴证券·2024-11-03 13:31Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Q3 performance fell short of expectations due to pressure on retail market demand [1] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was RMB 8.499 billion, down 8.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 427 million, down 34.1% YoY [2] - Q3 revenue was RMB 2.464 billion, down 14.6% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 134 million, up 2.5% YoY [2] - Gross margin for Q3 was 38.3%, down 1.1 percentage points YoY, while the combined expense ratio for sales, management, and finance was 31.6%, up 2.6 percentage points YoY [2] - The company plans to transfer 100% equity of a commercial property company, which is expected to support Q4 performance [3] - The company's Wanning duty-free project continues to grow, with duty-free revenue reaching RMB 204 million, up 68.6% YoY [3] Business Segments - Department stores, shopping centers, outlets, specialty stores, and duty-free businesses generated revenues of RMB 3.242 billion, RMB 2.254 billion, RMB 1.650 billion, RMB 1.078 billion, and RMB 204 million, respectively, in Q1-Q3 2024 [3] - Department store revenue declined by 15.5% YoY, while outlet and shopping center revenues showed resilience with growth of 4.4% and a slight decline of 1.6%, respectively [3] - The supermarket business has been terminated and exited [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 11.572 billion, RMB 11.868 billion, and RMB 12.377 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -5.34%, 2.56%, and 4.29% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 604 million, RMB 625 million, and RMB 748 million, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -14.84%, 3.47%, and 19.67% [1] - EPS for 2024-2026 is estimated to be RMB 0.53, RMB 0.55, and RMB 0.66 per share, respectively [1] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 28.18x, 27.24x, and 22.76x, respectively [1] - The current P/B ratio is 0.86x [5] Market Data - The closing price is RMB 15.00, with a 52-week range of RMB 11.52 to RMB 18.44 [5] - The market capitalization is RMB 17.02574 billion, with a circulating A-share market cap of RMB 16.40204 billion [5] Financial Health - The company's total assets are projected to be RMB 40.865 billion, RMB 41.523 billion, and RMB 42.069 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [9] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to be 48.43%, 47.66%, and 46.47% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 3.816 billion, RMB 3.072 billion, and RMB 3.699 billion, respectively [10] - Capital expenditures for 2024-2026 are projected to be RMB 4.554 billion, RMB 3.249 billion, and RMB 3.380 billion, respectively [10]