PSBC(601658) 中国银河·2024-11-03 15:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, specifically a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance relative to the market index [3][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in revenue and net profit growth, with a slight increase in operating income and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving revenues of 260.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 75.82 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.09% and 0.22% respectively [1][6]. - The adjustment in agency fees has begun to show positive effects, leading to a decrease in business and management expenses by 4.17% in Q3 2024, resulting in an improved cost-to-income ratio of 60.29% [1][6]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.86% and a provision coverage ratio of 301.88%, although there is a slight increase in the ratio of watchlist loans [2][28]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 260.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75.82 billion yuan, growing by 0.22% [1][6]. - The annualized return on equity (ROE) stands at 11.79%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][6]. Credit and Deposits - The net interest income for the first nine months of 2024 was 214.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.46% [8]. - Total loans increased by 7.74% compared to the end of the previous year, with corporate loans growing by 11.66% and personal loans by 5.69% [8]. - Total deposits grew by 7.53%, with personal deposits increasing by 6.89% [8]. Non-Interest Income and Wealth Management - Non-interest income for the first nine months of 2024 was 45.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.95%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [21]. - Retail assets under management (AUM) exceeded 16 trillion yuan, growing by 7.55% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in wealth management [21]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The non-performing loan ratio is at 0.86%, with a slight increase from the previous year, while the provision coverage ratio has decreased by 45.69 percentage points [28]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is 9.42%, showing a slight decline from the previous year but an improvement from the first half of 2024 [28]. Investment Recommendations - The company is backed by the Postal Group and demonstrates strong comprehensive operational capabilities. The unique self-operated and agency model, along with the adjustment in agency fees, is expected to promote long-term healthy development [3][4]. - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2024-2026 is estimated at 8.50 yuan, 9.13 yuan, and 9.78 yuan, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.62X, 0.58X, and 0.54X [3][4].