上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 2025 年 04 月 30 日 邮储银行 (601658) ——信贷增速领跑，关注优化结构、夯实拨备成效 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 5.12 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 5.83/4.45 | | 市净率 | 0.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 10.21 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 343,667 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,279.03/9,899.82 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.51 | | 资产负债率% | 94.37 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 99,161/67,122 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/19,856 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-30 05-31 06-30 07-31 08-31 09-30 10 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 成本收入比改善。2025 年一季度业务及管理费 506 亿元，同比下降 4.6%， 成本收入比 2.7 个百分点，对净利润贡献较大。 资产质量边际承压。公司 2025 年一季末不良贷款率 0.91%，比年初上升 0.01 个百分点；关注类贷款占比 1.07%，较上年末上升 0.12 个百分点；逾期率 1.23%，较上年末上升 0.04 个百分点。一季度末拨备覆盖率 266%，较年初下 降 20 个百分点。公司披露的一季度年化不良贷款生成率 0.94%，同比上升 0.13 个百分点。 投资建议：我们根据一季报信息小幅调整盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年 归母净利润 836/851/869 亿元（上次预测值 870/989/1114 亿元），同比增 速-3.3/1.7/2.2%；全面摊薄 EPS 为 0.78/0.79/0.81 元；当前股价对应 PE 为 6.9/6.8/6.6x，PB 为 0.61/0.57/0.54x，维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济形势走弱可能对银行资产质量产生不利影响。 邮储银行（601658.SH）2025 年一季报点评 优 ...

证券研究报告 邮储银行 (1658 HK/601658 CH) 息差边际下行，成本优化显效 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 国有大型银行 | 邮储银行于 4 月 29 日发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 归母净利润、营业收入分 别同比-2.6%、-0.1%，1-3 月年化 ROE、ROA 分别同比-1.03pct、-0.06pct 至 11.33%、0.58%。公司五大差异化增长极持续显效，维持 A/H 股增持/ 买入评级。 信贷投放提速，息差边际下行 3 月末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+8.3%、+9.8%、+9.2%，较 24 年末 -0.3pct、+0.4pct、-0.3pct。 公司信贷投放提速，一季度贷款新增 4430 亿 元，投放结构中对公/零售/票据分别占比 82%/15%/3%。3 月末公司涉农贷 款余额 2.40 万亿元，普惠小微贷款余额 1.67 万亿元，占客户贷款总额比重 均居国有大行前列。净息差较 24A-16bp 至 1.71%，主要由于资产端仍有压 力 ...

证券研究报告 邮储银行 (1658 HK/601658 CH) 息差边际下行，成本优化显效 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 国有大型银行 | 邮储银行于 4 月 29 日发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 归母净利润、营业收入分 别同比-2.6%、-0.1%，1-3 月年化 ROE、ROA 分别同比-1.03pct、-0.06pct 至 11.33%、0.58%。公司五大差异化增长极持续显效，维持 A/H 股增持/ 买入评级。 信贷投放提速，息差边际下行 3 月末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+8.3%、+9.8%、+9.2%，较 24 年末 -0.3pct、+0.4pct、-0.3pct。 公司信贷投放提速，一季度贷款新增 4430 亿 元，投放结构中对公/零售/票据分别占比 82%/15%/3%。3 月末公司涉农贷 款余额 2.40 万亿元，普惠小微贷款余额 1.67 万亿元，占客户贷款总额比重 均居国有大行前列。净息差较 24A-16bp 至 1.71%，主要由于资产端仍有压 力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in Liuzhou, Guangxi, is undergoing a transformation towards new energy vehicles, with financial institutions like Postal Savings Bank playing a crucial role in supporting this transition through innovative financial services [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Support and Services - Postal Savings Bank's Guangxi branch has focused on the automotive industry's transformation and the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, providing tailored financial services to support the creation of a trillion-yuan automotive industry cluster in Liuzhou [1]. - As of March 2025, the bank has issued a total of 35.8 billion yuan in manufacturing loans, with a loan balance exceeding 25.7 billion yuan, including 10.336 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans and 9.872 billion yuan in credit loans [1]. - The bank has implemented measures to enhance service efficiency, such as optimizing review materials and adopting a one-level review and approval system, which shortens the business chain [1]. Group 2: Company Developments - Songsen Company, the only domestic brand automotive fuel pump manufacturer in Liuzhou, has expanded its customer base from a single supplier to include major automakers like Great Wall, Volkswagen, and SAIC, leading to a significant increase in its working capital needs [2][3]. - The company has received financial support from Postal Savings Bank, increasing its credit limit from 5 million yuan in 2022 to 45 million yuan in 2023, with plans to further increase it to 50 million yuan by 2025 [3]. - Songsen Company is focusing on both traditional fuel vehicle components and optimizing its production capacity by relocating its assembly operations from Shanghai to Liuzhou, creating a collaborative model of "R&D in Shanghai, manufacturing in Liuzhou" [2]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Production - Liuzhou Wuling New Energy Co., Ltd. has invested 2.469 billion yuan in its factory, which is designed to produce high-cost performance pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with an annual production capacity of 200,000 units [4]. - The company has reported a sales target of over 14,000 units and revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in the first quarter of this year [4]. - Postal Savings Bank has been a key financial partner for Liuzhou Wuling New Energy, providing a credit line of 500 million yuan and supporting its initial R&D and production line upgrades with a loan of 250 million yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Postal Savings Bank, with current prices at 5.35 CNY and 4.85 HKD respectively [1][10]. Core Insights - Postal Savings Bank's Q1 2025 report shows stable revenue at 893.6 billion CNY, with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 252.5 billion CNY, down 2.6% year-over-year [2][3]. - The bank's non-interest income has increased its contribution to total revenue, rising to 22.9%, up 4.9 percentage points from the previous year [3][4]. - The bank's loan and interest income growth rates are 9.8% and -3.8% respectively, indicating a shift towards non-interest income sources [3][4]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the bank's net interest margin decreased to 1.71%, down 16 basis points from 2024, primarily due to lower asset yields [6][10]. - Non-interest income grew by 14.8% year-over-year, reaching 205.1 billion CNY, with significant contributions from fees and commissions [7][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low at 0.91%, with a slight increase from the previous year [8][10]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q1 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8% and 9.8% year-over-year, respectively, with loans making up 56.5% of interest-earning assets [4][5]. - The bank's deposit growth was robust, with total deposits increasing by 9.2% year-over-year, reflecting strong core funding capabilities [5][10]. Capital Adequacy - The risk-weighted assets (RWA) increased by 6.9% year-over-year, with a decline in capital adequacy ratios, indicating higher capital consumption due to increased lending [9][10]. - The bank's core tier 1 capital ratio stood at 9.21%, down from the previous year, but is expected to improve following a planned capital increase of 130 billion CNY [9][10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a slight decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027, adjusting the forecast to 0.74, 0.75, and 0.78 CNY respectively [10][11]. - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratios for A-shares and H-shares are estimated at 0.7 and 0.55 respectively for 2025 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 6.24 CNY, compared to the current price of 5.35 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The bank's liabilities continue to show advantages, while retail business is expected to recover gradually. The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline in operating income by 0.07% year-on-year, and a decrease in net profit by 2.62% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 20 percentage points to 266% [2][3][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Operating Income and Profit**: In Q1 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 893.63 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 0.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 252.46 billion CNY, down 2.62% year-on-year [2][3]. - **Loan and Deposit Growth**: The bank's loans and deposits grew by 9.8% and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively. Corporate loans increased by 15.2%, while retail loans grew by 4.3% [8]. - **Interest Margin**: The net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 1.69% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in asset yield [8]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio rose to 0.91%, with an annualized net generation rate of 0.94%. The bank is expected to maintain manageable levels of retail loan non-performing rates as the economy recovers [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The forecast for revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 is 1.0%, 3.6%, and 6.4%, respectively. Net profit growth is projected at 1.1%, 2.0%, and 5.0% for the same period [8][9]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current valuation is at 0.6 times the 2025 price-to-book ratio, with a target price set at 6.24 CNY based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 0.7 times [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The 27th China Beijing International Science and Technology Industry Expo will be held from May 8 to 11, 2025, showcasing Postal Savings Bank of China's Beijing branch's innovations in financial technology, including HarmonyOS ecosystem experiences, MR metaverse, digital human interaction, and smart cloud printing [1] Group 1: Digital Financial Infrastructure - The Postal Savings Bank of China's Beijing branch will focus on "Technology Finance" at the expo, highlighting green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, while integrating HarmonyOS elements [2] - Visitors will experience various interactive projects, including personalized laser engraving services, MR metaverse explorations of financial products, and digital human interaction machines for financial consulting [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and Service Efficiency - The bank's innovations leverage HarmonyOS for seamless interconnectivity across devices, enhancing customer service experiences and operational efficiency [3] - In January 2025, the bank launched the HarmonyOS ecological bank, enabling a closed-loop service scenario with multiple devices for various banking functions [3] Group 3: Comprehensive Service System - The bank is focusing on the financial needs of technology enterprises, developing an evaluation system for innovation capabilities and enhancing its analysis methods to support high-growth tech companies [4] - The "Easy Enterprise" product offers a one-stop solution for small and medium-sized enterprises, integrating financial functions into various management applications [4] Group 4: Diverse Financial Products - The Uyi Chuang and Sci-Tech Loan product systems cater to different financing needs, with Uyi Chuang offering a range of services for capital operation and wealth management [5] - The Sci-Tech Loan addresses financing challenges for tech startups, while the Small Micro Easy Loan provides flexible online and offline financing options without requiring financial statements [5] Group 5: Commitment to Innovation - The bank's leadership emphasizes a commitment to innovation and optimizing service models, aiming to integrate technology and finance to support high-quality economic development [5]

会议由陈跃军监事长主持，出席会议的监事审议并表决通过了以 下议案： 关于中国邮政储蓄银行 2025 年第一季度报告的议案 议案表决情况：有效表决票 5 票，同意 5 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 本行监事会认为，本行 2025 年第一季度报告的编制和审议程序 符合法律、行政法规和监管规定，报告的内容真实、准确、完整地反 映了本行的实际情况。 特此公告。 证券代码：601658 证券简称：邮储银行 公告编号：临 2025-034 中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司 监事会决议公告 中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在 任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整 性承担法律责任。 中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司（以下简称本行）监事会于 2025 年 4 月 14 日以书面形式发出会议通知，于 2025 年 4 月 29 日在北京 以现场方式召开会议。会议应出席监事 5 名，亲自出席 4 名，委托出 席 1 名；陈世敏监事由于其他公务安排，书面委托白建军监事出席会 议并代为行使表决权。会议的召开符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等 有关法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文 ...

会议由郑国雨董事长主持，出席会议的董事审议并表决通过了以 下议案： 一、关于中国邮政储蓄银行 2024 年绿色金融工作情况及 2025 年发展计划的议案 议案表决情况：有效表决票 15 票，同意 15 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 证券代码：601658 证券简称：邮储银行 公告编号：临 2025-033 二、关于中国邮政储蓄银行 2025 年第一季度报告的议案 中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司 董事会决议公告 中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在 任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整 性承担法律责任。 中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司（以下简称本行）董事会于 2025 年 4 月 14 日以书面形式发出会议通知，于 2025 年 4 月 29 日在北京 以现场方式召开会议。会议应出席董事 15 名，亲自出席董事 15 名， 部分监事及高级管理人员列席会议。会议的召开符合《中华人民共和 国公司法》（以下简称《公司法》）等有关法律、行政法规、部门规 章、规范性文件和《中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司章程》（以下简 称《公司章程》）的有关规定。 四、关于《中国 ...