NKF(603707) 国泰君安·2024-11-03 17:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's profitability has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with a focus on high-end formulations and a transition to biopharmaceuticals, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.06 million yuan, down 27.82% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 945 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 201 million yuan, down 6.54% year-on-year [2]. - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.52, 0.69, and 0.92 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.56, 0.74, and 0.96 yuan, and sets a target price of 16.56 yuan for 2025, up from 13.44 yuan [2]. Financial Summary - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 41.41%, a decrease of 7.99 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high base prices of heparin raw materials in the same period last year. The gross profit margin for Q3 was 44.07%, down 0.32 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.30 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The selling expense ratio decreased to 6.27%, down 3.56 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to reduced promotional expenses for formulations. The management expense ratio increased to 3.93%, up 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the R&D expense ratio rose to 7.00%, up 0.23 percentage points [2]. - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 19.62%, down 7.09 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 showing a net profit margin of 21.24%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is intensifying its strategic transition towards biopharmaceuticals and high-end formulations, having obtained multiple drug registration approvals in the first half of 2024. As of 2023, it holds 97 overseas drug registration approvals and 28 domestic approvals, leading the industry in the number of ANDA approvals [2]. - The company is advancing its capabilities in peptide and complex formulation technologies, with ongoing development of four biosimilar projects in 2023. Collaborations with other firms are also underway to enhance its product offerings in the high-end market [2].