VANKE(000002) 平安证券·2024-11-04 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 was significantly impacted by various factors, leading to a revenue decline of 24.3% year-on-year, with a net loss of 179.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 231.7% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company has taken measures to ensure high-quality delivery and public debt repayment, achieving a sales amount of 181.2 billion yuan with a collection rate exceeding 100% [4][6]. - The company has successfully reduced its debt burden, with no due domestic or foreign public bonds for the year, and has maintained positive operating cash flow since the second quarter [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2,198.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -179.4 billion yuan, down 231.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The real estate development business accounted for 1,732.3 billion yuan in revenue, down 29.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.5%, a decline of 8.1 percentage points [4][5]. - The company has seen a significant increase in financing and refinancing, totaling 774 billion yuan, with a financing cost of 3.58% [4][6]. Business Segment Performance - The company's operating service business revenue reached 430.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with property management and leasing services showing growth [6]. - The company has actively engaged in asset transactions, signing agreements worth 232.6 billion yuan across various projects nationwide [4][6]. Future Earnings Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 has been revised down to -1.70 yuan, with projections for 2025 and 2026 remaining at 0.10 yuan and 0.14 yuan, respectively [6][10]. - The company's current stock price reflects a pessimistic outlook, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.47, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.69 [6][10].