海澜之家：Q3业绩承压，期待新业务逐步发力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.24 CNY, based on a 13x PE valuation for 2024 [3][4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.26 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.99%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.91 billion CNY, down 22.2%. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit decreased by 11.01% and 64.9% year-on-year, respectively, falling short of market expectations [1]. - By brand, Q3 2024 saw a significant decline in revenue for the main brand and group purchases, down 26.6% and 37.1% year-on-year, attributed mainly to reduced foot traffic in physical stores and adjustments in the franchise channel. Conversely, other brands experienced a substantial revenue increase of 109.7%, primarily due to the consolidation of the Sporz brand management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. into the company's financial statements [1]. - In terms of sales channels, online revenue grew by 39.7% year-on-year, while offline revenue fell by 25.9%. Revenue from direct stores, franchise stores, and others decreased by 2.4% and 14.2% respectively [1]. - The company's inventory turnover days increased to 346 days in Q3 2024, up 71 days year-on-year, likely due to pre-stocking, the consolidation of Sporz's business, and poor sales of the main brand [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%. The selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios increased by 5.8 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points, and 1 percentage point year-on-year, respectively. Financial expenses were -0.47 million CNY, down from 0.19 million CNY in the same period last year, mainly due to reduced interest expenses after the conversion of convertible bonds [2]. - The company faces short-term performance pressure due to the consumption environment but anticipates a recovery in mass consumption driven by subsequent policy support. The e-commerce business, Sporz brand management (FCC sports business + JD Outlet), and overseas operations are showing promising growth, particularly the JD Outlet business, which is expanding both online and offline [2]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Based on the Q3 report, the earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 0.48 CNY, 0.56 CNY, and 0.65 CNY, respectively. The previous estimates were 0.59 CNY, 0.67 CNY, and 0.74 CNY. The target price of 6.24 CNY corresponds to a 13x PE valuation for 2024, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3][9].