Guangzhou Restaurant(603043) 国泰君安·2024-11-04 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 19.20 CNY, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous target of 17.27 CNY [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a focus on channel expansion and the progress of its restaurant business. The sales figures for mooncake business were in line with expectations, and overall sales remained flat year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights a downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to weak overall demand in the restaurant industry, with projected EPS of 0.90 CNY (-13%), 1.01 CNY (-11%), and 1.11 CNY (-9%) respectively [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.1 billion CNY in 2024 Q1-3, a 6% increase year-on-year, while gross profit decreased by 4% to 1.36 billion CNY [4][5]. Financial Summary - For 2024 Q3, the company reported a revenue of 2.19 billion CNY, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with mooncake, frozen food, and restaurant revenues at 1.41 billion CNY, 230 million CNY, and 370 million CNY respectively [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 39.49%, down 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit of 390 million CNY, a decrease of 5.3% [4][5]. - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of 5.24 billion CNY for 2024, 5.96 billion CNY for 2025, and 6.70 billion CNY for 2026, with corresponding net profits of 511 million CNY, 575 million CNY, and 633 million CNY [5][12].