Hoymiles(688032) 东吴证券·2024-11-04 02:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue and net profit were impacted by reduced shipments due to the European holiday season, but recovery is expected in Q4 [2] - The company launched balcony micro-storage products in late August, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [2] - Management and R&D expenses increased in Q3, leading to higher expense ratios due to declining revenue [3] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been revised downward due to the impact of reduced shipments in Q3 [3] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 24Q1-3 revenue: 1.27 billion yuan, down 10.1% YoY [2] - 24Q1-3 net profit: 250 million yuan, down 40.9% YoY [2] - 24Q3 revenue: 360 million yuan, up 4.4% YoY but down 37.9% QoQ [2] - 24Q3 net profit: 57.99 million yuan, down 13.4% YoY and 51.8% QoQ [2] - 24Q1-3 gross margin: 48.1%, up 3.8 percentage points YoY [2] - 24Q3 gross margin: 49.5%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY and 2.9 percentage points QoQ [2] Expenses and Cash Flow - 24Q1-3 operating expenses: 400 million yuan, up 61.9% YoY, with an expense ratio of 31.3% [3] - 24Q3 operating expenses: 150 million yuan, up 24.3% YoY and 14.4% QoQ, with an expense ratio of 43% [3] - 24Q1-3 operating cash flow: 70 million yuan, down 424.7% YoY [3] - 24Q3 operating cash flow: -90 million yuan, down 1023.3% YoY and 206.8% QoQ [3] - 24Q1-3 capital expenditure: 660 million yuan, up 253.5% YoY [3] - 24Q3 capital expenditure: 290 million yuan, up 257.4% YoY and 45.8% QoQ [3] Inventory and Financial Position - Inventory at the end of 24Q3: 990 million yuan, up 35.3% from the beginning of the year [3] - Total assets: 7.228 billion yuan (2023A), expected to grow to 11.652 billion yuan by 2026E [10] - Total liabilities: 849 million yuan (2023A), expected to grow to 1.992 billion yuan by 2026E [10] - Equity attributable to parent company: 6.377 billion yuan (2023A), expected to grow to 9.658 billion yuan by 2026E [10] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 450 million yuan, 700 million yuan, and 920 million yuan, respectively [3] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 3.61 yuan, 5.68 yuan, and 7.40 yuan, respectively [1] - 2024-2026 P/E ratio: 37x, 23x, and 18x, respectively [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 1.865 billion yuan, 2.984 billion yuan, and 3.939 billion yuan, respectively [1] Market Data - Closing price: 132.99 yuan [6] - 52-week low/high: 99.53 yuan / 301.53 yuan [6] - P/B ratio: 2.64x [6] - Market cap: 16.459 billion yuan [6] - ROE (2023A): 8.03%, expected to grow to 9.48% by 2026E [11]