百隆东方：产能布局优势显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2.1 billion, up 11% YoY, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million, down 36% YoY [1] - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 6.1 billion, up 19% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 400 million, down 25% YoY [1] - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 11.39%, up 0.64 percentage points YoY, while the net margin was 6.79%, down 4.07 percentage points YoY [1] - The company is leveraging its production capacity layout and sales responsiveness to capitalize on the economic recovery opportunity [3] - The company is focusing on eco-friendly product development, including ecological cotton, regenerated cellulose fiber, and biodegradable fiber, which have been well-received in the market [2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, with expected EPS for 2024-2026 at 0.3, 0.4, and 0.4 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17X, 14X, and 12X [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 8.61 billion, with a growth rate of 24.5% YoY [5] - EBITDA for 2024E is expected to be 1.33 billion, down 12.2% YoY [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is forecasted to be 459.69 million, down 8.8% YoY [5] - The company's EPS for 2024E is projected to be 0.31 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 16.96X [5] - The company's P/B ratio for 2024E is expected to be 0.85, and the P/S ratio is projected to be 0.91 [5] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the textile and apparel manufacturing industry [6] - The company is deepening its brand partnerships and strengthening its market position by responding quickly to market trends and releasing color cards for the 2025/26 spring-summer and autumn-winter seasons [3] - The company is benefiting from the recovery in consumer demand as downstream apparel brands reduce inventory [3] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 11.8%, up from 8.65% in 2023 [11] - The net profit margin for 2024E is projected to be 5.34%, down from 7.29% in 2023 [11] - The company's asset-liability ratio for 2024E is forecasted to be 43.24%, up from 39.11% in 2023 [11] - The current ratio for 2024E is expected to be 1.58, down from 1.71 in 2023 [11] - The quick ratio for 2024E is projected to be 0.32, down from 0.73 in 2023 [11]