CSN(600029) 信达证券·2024-11-04 07:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Southern Airlines (600029) [1] Core Views - Revenue growth was offset by declining ticket prices, impacting overall profitability [1] - International routes showed significant recovery, with load factors exceeding 2019 levels [1] - Unit revenue declined sharply, but unit costs were well controlled [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.41, 40.23, and 57.08 billion yuan in 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 108.1%, 1081.3%, and 41.9% respectively [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q3 2024 revenue reached 49.87 billion yuan, up 4.64% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company was 3.193 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 23.89% YoY [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, net profit was 1.965 billion yuan, up 48.9% YoY [1] Operational Metrics - Total ASK increased 11.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [1] - International and regional ASK recovered to 84.9% of 2019 levels [1] - Overall load factor reached 85.49%, exceeding 2019 levels by 1.8 percentage points [1] Unit Economics - Unit RPK revenue was 0.587 yuan, down 11.8% YoY [1] - Unit ASK cost was 0.425 yuan, down 4.0% YoY [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at 13.7%, 7.8%, and 4.4% in 2024-2026 [2] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 7.7% in 2023 to 11.2% in 2026 [2] - ROE is forecasted to increase from -11.4% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2026 [2] Valuation - Current PE ratios are 324.61x, 27.48x, and 19.37x for 2024-2026 [1] - PB ratios are projected at 2.69x, 2.98x, and 2.36x for 2024-2026 [2]