招商公路：业绩表现稳健，盈利符合预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a steady performance in Q3 2024, achieving operating revenue of 3.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%. The total profit reached 1.82 billion yuan, up 1.93% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.45 billion yuan, down 6.42% year-on-year [2][4][5] - The growth in traffic volume was below expectations, and the operational performance post-acquisition of road assets did not meet projections. Additionally, changes in highway toll policies were noted as a concern [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.09 billion yuan, a 34.9% increase year-on-year. Operating costs were 2.50 billion yuan, up 37.4% year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of China Merchants Railway and Road King China [4] - The gross profit for Q3 was 594 million yuan, reflecting a 25.5% increase compared to Q3 2023. The company maintained stable toll revenue despite macroeconomic pressures and high base effects from the previous year [4] - Investment income decreased slightly to 1.20 billion yuan, down 7.13% year-on-year, influenced by the consolidation adjustments and macroeconomic pressures [5] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading highway operator with strong growth drivers, supported by its background in the China Merchants Group. The company has a young asset portfolio and is expanding its operations across the entire highway industry chain [6] - The company has committed to a high dividend policy, with a promise that the dividend payout ratio will not be less than 55% from 2022 to 2024. The expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 6.3 billion, 6.7 billion, and 7.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11.2 [6][7] Dividend Policy - For 2023, the company plans a dividend of 0.531 yuan per share (before tax), maintaining a payout ratio of 53.5%. The company aims to achieve operating revenue of 13.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 36% increase compared to 2023, significantly outpacing comparable companies [7]