兴业证券2024三季报点评：客户保证金高增，自营投资收益率回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a significant increase in client margin, while self-operated investment returns have rebounded. The report highlights a year-on-year increase in investment income, which supports the overall performance despite a decline in brokerage and investment banking revenues [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders were 8.8 billion and 1.3 billion CNY, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 1% and 17%. In Q3 alone, the net profit was 380 million CNY, marking a turnaround from losses but a 38% decrease quarter-on-quarter [4] - The annualized weighted average ROE for the first three quarters was 3.08%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with an end-period leverage ratio (excluding client margin) of 3.7 times, a decrease of 0.03 times from the beginning of the year [4] Revenue Breakdown - Brokerage business net income for the first three quarters was 1.3 billion CNY, down 26% year-on-year, with Q3 net income at 400 million CNY, down 29% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to weak market trading volumes [5] - Investment banking net income was 440 million CNY, down 43% year-on-year, with Q3 income at 180 million CNY, down 7% year-on-year but up 22% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Asset management business net income was 120 million CNY, up 6% year-on-year, driven by growth in AUM, which reached 86.2 billion CNY in H1 2024, an increase of 2% from the beginning of the year [5] Investment Income - Net interest income for the first three quarters was 880 million CNY, down 39% year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in interest income from bank deposits and an increase in interest expenses [6] - Investment income (including fair value gains and losses) was 2.22 billion CNY, up 163% year-on-year, with Q3 alone contributing 1.03 billion CNY, a 21% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] - The annualized self-operated investment return rate for the first three quarters was 3.4%, up from 2.7% in H1 2024, influenced by the stock market's rise at the end of September [6] Future Projections - The report has revised the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.2 billion, 2.7 billion, and 3.3 billion CNY, respectively, from previous estimates of 1.8 billion, 2.6 billion, and 2.8 billion CNY. The EPS is projected to be 0.25, 0.31, and 0.38 CNY for the respective years [4]