SDIC Capital(600061) 华创证券·2024-11-04 09:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Guotou Capital (600061) with a target price of 10.06 yuan, compared to the current price of 7.82 yuan [1] Core Views - Guotou Capital's Q3 2024 performance was driven by a significant increase in proprietary trading income, which rose by 53.2% YoY to 2.05 billion yuan, contributing to the recovery in net profit [1] - The proprietary trading yield for Q3 2024 was 0.72%, up 0.46 percentage points YoY, with an annualized yield of 2.31% for the first three quarters, an increase of 0.82 percentage points YoY [1] - The company's wealth management transformation is progressing, and its multi-license synergy advantages are becoming evident, supporting the "Recommend" rating [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Guotou Capital achieved operating revenue of 3.53 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 19.8%, but a QoQ increase of 0.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 was 830 million yuan, a YoY increase of 12.2%, but a QoQ decrease of 7.9% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's total operating revenue was 10.25 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 20.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.08 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 14.3% [1] Subsidiary Performance - Guotou Securities' equity underwriting scale for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.277 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 85%, with a market share of 0.63% [1] - Guotou Rui Fund's non-monetary fund management scale reached 158.9 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, a YoY increase of 17%, while equity and hybrid fund management scale was 40.1 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 9% [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024/2025/2026 to be 0.43/0.46/0.52 yuan, with BPS of 8.06/8.39/8.73 yuan, and PB ratios of 0.97/0.93/0.90 times [1] - ROE is expected to be 5.29%/5.46%/5.95% for 2024/2025/2026, respectively [1]