圣邦股份：Q3毛利率继续保持高水平，利润同比翻倍

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SG Micro (300661 SZ) [1] Core Views - SG Micro's Q3 2024 gross margin remained at a high level, with net profit doubling year-over-year [1] - The company's profitability improved significantly due to scale effects, with gross margin increasing by 1 6 percentage points year-over-year to 52 2% [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2 445 billion yuan, up 30 0% year-over-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2 85 billion yuan, up 100 6% year-over-year [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 868 million yuan, up 18 5% year-over-year and 2 5% quarter-over-quarter, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1 06 billion yuan, up 102 7% year-over-year [1] - The company's R&D investment continues to increase, with R&D expenses reaching 2 31 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 14 9% year-over-year and 10 3% quarter-over-quarter [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue is projected to be 3 27 billion yuan, up 25% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to reach 387 million yuan, up 38% year-over-year [1] - 2025E revenue is forecasted to grow 28% year-over-year to 4 178 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to increase 78% year-over-year to 688 million yuan [1] - 2026E revenue is projected to reach 5 259 billion yuan, up 26% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to grow 50% year-over-year to 1 03 billion yuan [1] Profitability Ratios - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 52% from 2024E to 2026E [2] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 11 5% in 2024E to 19 0% in 2026E [2] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 9 3% in 2024E to 17 9% in 2026E [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 106 5x in 2024E to 40 0x in 2026E [1] - P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 9 8x in 2024E to 7 1x in 2026E [1] Industry Analysis - The global analog IC industry is showing positive changes, with leading companies like TI revising down capital expenditure plans, which may alleviate concerns about oversupply [1] - In China, the industry is undergoing consolidation, with listed companies actively engaging in M&A activities, leading to improved competitive dynamics [1] - Downstream customers are optimizing their supply chains, favoring leading companies with cost advantages and better product quality [1] Growth Drivers - The company's strong R&D investment and product line expansion are expected to drive long-term growth [1] - New product launches and market share gains are anticipated to contribute to high growth elasticity [1] - The company's inventory level increase is attributed to strategic stockpiling for new product models, indicating a robust pipeline of new products [1]