GANFENG LITHIUM(002460) 光大证券·2024-11-04 10:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ganfeng Lithium (002460 SZ) due to its global industry leadership position [3] Core Views - Ganfeng Lithium's Q3 2024 performance showed a turnaround, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching RMB 120 million, marking the first positive result in the past four quarters [1] - The company's global resource layout is entering a harvest period, with plans to achieve a total annual production capacity of no less than 600,000 tons of LCE by 2030 [2] - The lithium price is expected to bottom out in the range of RMB 60,000-70,000 per ton, with the current price of RMB 73,200 per ton already close to the bottom range [3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 4.336 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 42.46%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 120 million, a year-on-year decrease of 24.85% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 13.925 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 45.78%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of -RMB 640 million, a year-on-year decrease of 110.66% [1] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 9.33%, with a net profit margin of 2.77% [8] Global Resource Development - The Cauchari-Olaroz project in Argentina produced approximately 6,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2023 and is expected to produce 20,000-25,000 tons in 2024 [2] - The Mariana project in Argentina is expected to start trial production by the end of 2024, while the PPG project has completed the construction of a pilot line [2] - The Mali project has been basically completed and is preparing for production, with the first batch of lithium concentrate expected to be produced in 2024 [2] Solid-State Battery Development - Ganfeng Lithium has made significant progress in solid-state battery development, achieving a room-temperature ionic conductivity of 0.6mS/cm for ultra-thin oxide electrolyte ceramic membranes with a thickness of 50μm [2] - The company has developed high-energy-density batteries with an energy density of 420Wh/kg and a cycle life of over 700 cycles, as well as samples with an energy density of 500Wh/kg [2] Profit Forecast - The report revised down the profit forecast, expecting net profit attributable to the parent company to be -RMB 220 million in 2024, RMB 710 million in 2025, and RMB 1.38 billion in 2026 [3] - The corresponding PE ratios for 2024-2026 are NA, 97x, and 50x respectively [3] Industry Outlook - The lithium industry is expected to see a more active mine shutdown/reduction strategy compared to previous cycles, with potential cost reductions for mines on the right side of the cost curve [3] - New production capacity from salt lakes and other sources on the left side of the cost curve is expected to be released, potentially pushing the lithium price below the theoretical cost support line [3]