锦江酒店：三季度经营有所承压，拓店计划完成度较好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Jinjiang Hotels, with a target price of RMB 27.10 [4] Core Views - Jinjiang Hotels' Q3 2024 performance was under pressure, with revenue declining by 7.10% YoY to RMB 3.898 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 43.08% YoY to RMB 258 million [1] - Domestic revenue in Q3 2024 fell by 10.88% YoY, while overseas revenue grew by 1.93% YoY [1] - The company's expansion plan is progressing well, with 469 new hotels opened in Q3 2024 (net increase of 248), bringing the total number of new hotels opened in the first three quarters to 1,149, nearly meeting the annual target of 1,200 [1] - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 1.15, RMB 1.19, and RMB 1.43, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.6x, 22.7x, and 18.9x [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Jinjiang Hotels' domestic limited-service hotel RevPAR decreased by 8.38% YoY to RMB 174.41, with ADR and OCC at RMB 237.74 and 73.36%, respectively [1] - Overseas limited-service hotel RevPAR in Q3 2024 was EUR 43.36, down 6.05% YoY, with ADR and OCC at EUR 67.81 and 63.94%, respectively [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 10.79 billion, a decrease of 2.55% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.106 billion, an increase of 12.13% YoY (including a one-time gain of RMB 420 million from the disposal of Fashion Travel) [1] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts Jinjiang Hotels' revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 14.428 billion, RMB 15.055 billion, and RMB 16.178 billion, respectively, with growth rates of -1.5%, 4.3%, and 7.5% [3] - EBITDA for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 4.460 billion, RMB 5.031 billion, and RMB 5.549 billion, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 22.5%, 4.1%, and 20.1% in 2024-2026, reaching RMB 1.227 billion, RMB 1.277 billion, and RMB 1.533 billion, respectively [3] Industry and Market Performance - The hotel and catering industry is rated as Outperform [4] - Jinjiang Hotels' stock performance has been weak, with a year-to-date decline of 34% and a 3-month decline of 15% [4]