科沃斯2024Q3业绩点评：Q3受收支错期影响，期待Q4大促表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][17]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was below expectations, primarily due to revenue and expense mismatches. Future sales are expected to improve due to trade-in promotions and continued growth overseas [3][17]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 2.08, 2.75, and 3.05 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 16%, 7%, and 11% from previous estimates. The growth rates are projected at +93.2%, +32.2%, and +11.0% respectively [17]. Summary by Sections Revenue - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. Q3 2024 revenue was 3.25 billion yuan, down 4.06% year-on-year. The revenue from floor cleaning machines is expected to decline, while washing machines are projected to grow [12][14]. - New products launched in Q3 are anticipated to contribute significantly to Q4 revenue, especially with the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival and national subsidies [12][17]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 46.82%, a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points, but a decline of 4.2 percentage points from Q2 2024. The decline is attributed to inventory clearance in overseas channels [13][15]. - The company expects to see improvements in gross margins in Q4 due to ongoing cost reductions and product upgrades [13]. Assets and Cash Flow - As of Q3 2024, the company reported cash and cash equivalents plus trading financial assets of 4.199 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.02% year-on-year. Inventory stood at 3.397 billion yuan, down 6.08% year-on-year [16]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q3 2024 was -143 million yuan, a decrease of 46 million yuan year-on-year, while cash flow from investing activities was 110 million yuan, an increase of 529.67% year-on-year [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company will benefit from trade-in promotions and ongoing overseas growth, leading to an overall improvement in profitability. The target price has been raised to 63.2 yuan, based on comparable company valuations [17].