Muyuan Foods (002714) 财信证券·2024-11-05 04:09Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1][8]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong profitability in pig farming, with significant improvements in financial metrics and a commitment to shareholder returns through increased dividends [4][5][8]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in China's pig farming industry, benefiting from cost advantages and operational efficiencies [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 96.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.481 billion yuan, reflecting a turnaround with a growth rate of 668.90% [4]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first three quarters was 1.94 yuan, up 670.59% year-on-year [4]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 29.178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 336.27% [4]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a profit distribution plan for the first three quarters, proposing a cash dividend of 8.31 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for 40.06% of the net profit [5]. - The company plans to revise its dividend payout policy to distribute no less than 40% of the distributable profits in cash annually over the next three years, up from the previous 20% [5]. Operational Insights - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company had a breeding sow inventory of 3.316 million heads, with a corresponding annual production capacity of 80.86 million heads [6]. - The average profit per head of market pigs in Q3 2024 was approximately 646 yuan, a 196% increase from Q2 [6]. - The company has maintained a leading position in cost control within the industry, with expectations to achieve a cost target of 13 yuan per kg by year-end [6][8]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 133.679 billion yuan, 137.296 billion yuan, and 144.834 billion yuan, respectively [8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 17.270 billion yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 505.08%, 15.35%, and 6.22% for the following years [8].