华阳股份：煤炭量价下滑影响业绩，七元投产将带来增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by a decline in coal prices and volumes, but the upcoming production from the Qiyuan coal mine is expected to provide a boost [4] - Despite a challenging first three quarters in 2024, improvements in both volume and price are anticipated in the fourth quarter, alongside the expected contribution from the Qiyuan mine [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 18.602 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.09% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.819 billion yuan, down 57.42% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.5 yuan [1] - The average selling price of coal was 564 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.03% year-on-year, while the cost per ton increased by 12.24% to 342 yuan [2] - The gross profit margin for coal was 39.46%, down 10.39 percentage points year-on-year [2] Production and Sales Summary - The company produced 28.74 million tons of raw coal, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year, and sold 26.58 million tons, down 15.88% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, coal production was 10.08 million tons, with sales of 9.48 million tons, showing a significant improvement in sales volume compared to Q2 [3] Future Outlook - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.71, 0.81, and 0.96 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10.5, 9.2, and 7.8 [4] - The anticipated production from the Qiyuan coal mine (5 million tons/year) and the ongoing construction of the Bolin coal mine (5 million tons/year) are expected to secure the company's coal business continuity [3]