FIBOCOM(300638) 山西证券·2024-11-05 10:20Investment Rating - The report upgrades the company's rating to "Buy-B" [5] Core Views - The company continues to expand its product line in the IoT vertical industry, launching new products such as the SC208 smart module, MC610-GL LTE Cat1 bis module, WN372-GL Wi-Fi7 module, and FG332 series RedCap module based on MediaTek T300 platform [1] - The company is actively developing AIOT, partnering with Digua Robotics for lawn mowing robots and collaborating with DaFa Technology (a subsidiary of MediaTek) on 5G FWA solutions [2] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2 142 billion yuan, up 4 55% YoY and 9 74% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, up 108 87% YoY and 118 69% QoQ [2] - Excluding the impact of Ruiling's deconsolidation, the company's adjusted net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 was 450 million yuan, up 3 83% YoY [3] - The company's market share in the global cellular IoT module market reached 7 5% in Q2 2024, ranking third [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profit of 721 million yuan, 665 million yuan, and 819 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 27 9%, -7 7%, and 23 1% [5] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 6 217 billion yuan, up 5 12% YoY [2] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 652 million yuan, up 43 22% YoY [2] - Q3 2024 revenue: 2 142 billion yuan, up 4 55% YoY and 9 74% QoQ [2] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 318 million yuan, up 108 87% YoY and 118 69% QoQ [2] - 2024E revenue: 8 175 billion yuan, up 6 0% YoY [7] - 2024E net profit: 721 million yuan, up 27 9% YoY [7] - 2025E revenue: 8 706 billion yuan, up 6 5% YoY [7] - 2025E net profit: 665 million yuan, down 7 7% YoY [7] - 2026E revenue: 10 166 billion yuan, up 16 8% YoY [7] - 2026E net profit: 819 million yuan, up 23 1% YoY [7] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company's IoT module market is recovering, with global cellular IoT module shipments increasing by 11% YoY and 6% QoQ in Q2 2024, driven by strong performance in China and India [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of AIPC, AI agent, and edge AI markets, with its PC business recovering since Q3 2023 [5] - The company's customized solutions for low-altitude economy can achieve "no disconnection in the air, real-time image transmission," applicable in logistics and urban inspection [5] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E: 19 3x [7] - 2024E P/B: 3 9x [7] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 15 1x [9] - 2025E P/E: 20 9x [7] - 2025E P/B: 3 5x [7] - 2025E EV/EBITDA: 15 3x [9] - 2026E P/E: 17 0x [7] - 2026E P/B: 3 0x [7] - 2026E EV/EBITDA: 13 3x [9]