CM BANK(600036) 华福证券·2024-11-05 12:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [6][25]. Core Insights - The company's performance remains stable, with a revenue decline of 2.9% and a net profit decline of 0.6% for the first three quarters of 2024, showing improvements compared to the first half of 2024 [1][6]. - The net interest margin remained stable quarter-on-quarter at 1.97% in Q3 2024, with a slight decrease of 2 basis points from Q2 2024, benefiting from a reduction in both loan and deposit rates [2][6]. - The decline in commission income has slowed, particularly in wealth management, where income from selling financial products grew by 47% year-on-year [3][6]. - Asset quality in the retail sector shows some pressure, with a slight increase in the overdue loan rate to 1.71% as of September 2024 [4][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.9% and 0.6%, respectively, with improvements of 0.2 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024 [1]. - Cost control measures led to a reduction in business and management expenses, which decreased by 4.6% year-on-year, saving nearly 3.6 billion yuan [1]. Financial Metrics - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of -2.4%, 3.2%, and 7.1% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 1.1%, 2.2%, and 6.0% for the same period [6]. - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio over the past three years is 1.11, while the current PB ratio is 0.98, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [6]. Asset Quality and Risks - As of September 2024, the non-performing loan ratio remained stable, but the attention rate increased by 7 basis points compared to June 2024, indicating some pressure in asset quality [4]. - The overdue rate for retail loans increased to 1.71%, with notable rises in personal housing mortgage and consumer credit overdue rates [4]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the company's stable performance and potential for recovery in valuation, with a closing price of 39.08 yuan as of November 5, 2024 [8][6].