吉宏股份2024年三季报点评：业绩逐步修复，期待Q4旺季表现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to gradually recover its performance, with a focus on enhancing its core competitiveness through a proposed H-share listing. The Q4 performance is anticipated to improve due to seasonal factors [8]. - Revenue for the first three quarters was 3.9 billion yuan, down 21%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135 million yuan, down 58%. The Q3 revenue was 1.44 billion yuan, down 19.2%, and net profit was 62 million yuan, down 52.5%, which was below expectations [8]. - The forecast for EPS for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 0.59, 0.80, and 1.05 yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 34%, 45%, and 31% [8][13]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 5.376 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected revenue of 5.711 billion yuan for 2024, representing a decrease of 14.7% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 184 million yuan in 2022, with a forecast of 228 million yuan for 2024, indicating a decline of 33.8% [10]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 391 million yuan in 2022, with a projected 399 million yuan for 2024 [10]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company ranks second in the B2C export e-commerce market in China, with a market share of 2.3%. The Asian social e-commerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.5% from 2023 to 2028 [9]. - The company is enhancing its technological research and development capabilities and has established strategic partnerships, including with Huawei Cloud, to improve operational efficiency and expand its business boundaries [9]. - The company is focusing on brand building with several product lines, including electric bicycles and pet products, and is developing a SaaS service platform to support cross-border sellers [9].