RAINBOW(002419) 国泰君安·2024-11-05 12:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Tianhong Co., Ltd. [6] Core Views - The company experienced operational fluctuations in Q3, but the upgrade of its first supermarket store yielded excellent results, with expectations for further promotion [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters was 9.05 billion yuan, down 2.22%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 118 million yuan, down 47.3% [3] - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 has been adjusted to 0.18, 0.22, and 0.25 yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of -8%, 23%, and 17% [3] - The target price has been revised down to 6.6 yuan, based on comparable company valuations [3][13] Financial Summary - Q3 revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, down 3.05%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -36 million yuan, a decrease of 458% [3] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 36.5%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points [3] - The company operated 41 shopping centers, 59 department stores, and 112 supermarkets as of Q3 [4] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.24 billion yuan, down 42.1% [3] Business Performance - The shopping center segment saw revenue of 536 million yuan in Q3, an increase of 4.12%, while department stores and supermarkets experienced declines of 11.5% and 2.34% respectively [4] - The first SP@CE3.0 supermarket opened on September 6 in Shenzhen, achieving a sales increase of 196% on its opening day [4] - Digital membership reached 50 million, indicating rapid development in digital transformation [4] Valuation - The reasonable valuation for the company's stock is estimated at 6.6 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 30 for 2025 [13] - The average PE for comparable companies in 2024-2025 is projected at 34 and 29.5 times respectively [13]