CCCC(601800) 光大证券·2024-11-06 02:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) [4][6]. Core Views - CCCC's new contract signing shows steady growth, with a total of 12,804.6 billion yuan in new contracts signed from January to September 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [3]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 is 162.7 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 11.45% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the increase in investment income from asset disposals has helped mitigate the decline in net profit, with investment income reaching 9.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, CCCC achieved total revenue of 536.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 162.7 billion yuan, down 0.6% [1]. - The gross margin for the first nine months of 2024 was 11.5%, with a net profit margin of 3.9%, both showing slight increases compared to the previous year [2]. Contract Signing and Business Segments - New contracts in emerging business areas grew significantly, with a total of 3,900 billion yuan signed in the first three quarters, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [3]. - The report notes a decline in new contracts for traditional transportation and municipal projects due to tight local government finances, with significant decreases in port, road and bridge, and railway construction contracts [3]. Cash Flow and Asset Management - CCCC experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of 77.03 billion yuan in the first nine months, an increase of 27.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company is actively working on asset management, including the issuance of 4.956 billion yuan in asset-backed securities to improve liquidity and asset turnover [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for CCCC has been adjusted downwards for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates of 24.22 billion yuan, 26.90 billion yuan, and 28.70 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 6%, 3%, and 4% [4]. - Despite the downward adjustment, the report remains optimistic about the company's future growth prospects due to steady new contract growth and improved gross margins [4].