皮阿诺：2024年三季报点评：积极推动渠道挖潜，关厂或促进效益释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 10.30 yuan per share [2][4] Core Views - The company is actively exploring potential in the customized and renovation markets while expanding its engineering business [1] - Retail business: The company is empowering dealers with a "full-case design + home customization" dual-drive model to increase customer value and order conversion rates [1] - Engineering business: The company is deepening cooperation with state-owned and central enterprise partners, adding 20 high-quality dealers in the engineering channel in the first half of the year [1] - The company temporarily shut down its Tianjin factory in Q3 2024, which may gradually alleviate cost pressures [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.2 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 39.2%, with a net profit of 0.04 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 87.0% [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 24.2%, a YoY decrease of 7.0 percentage points, with sales/management/financial expense ratios of 12.3%/7.0%/-0.1%, respectively [2] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 1.73%, a YoY decrease of 6.4 percentage points [2] - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 0.3/1.07/1.33 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 56/16/13X [2] Business Strategy - Retail end: The company is advancing channels such as designers, new retail, platform e-commerce, and integrated decoration [2] - Engineering end: The company is strengthening cooperation with high-quality real estate partners, including state-owned and central enterprises [2] Market and Industry Context - The customized home furnishing industry is under pressure, with the company's revenue declining in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company is focusing on localizing new retail layouts and collaborating with leading decoration companies to capture terminal traffic [1] Financial Forecasts - Forecasted operating income for 2024-2026 is 9.99/10.81/11.31 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of -24.1%/8.1%/4.7% [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 0.3/1.07/1.33 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of -64.6%/250.3%/24.8% [3] - Forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.16/0.57/0.71 yuan [3]