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新凤鸣:原料折损拖累业绩,龙头议价能力提升
603225XfmGroup(603225) 财信证券·2024-11-06 10:22

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in performance, with expectations for profit expansion during peak seasons [4][6] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 49.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.31% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 746 million yuan, a decrease of 15.91% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the impact of declining oil prices on raw material costs, which has affected the industry [5] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 68.199 billion yuan, with net profit expected to be 1.11867 billion yuan [3][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.01 yuan by 2026 [3][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.81 in 2023 to 11.13 in 2026, indicating improving valuation [3][6] - The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 5.61%, down 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [4] Sales Performance - The sales volume for POY, FDY, DTY, and short fibers in the first three quarters were 3.8061 million tons, 1.0876 million tons, 563,900 tons, and 919,900 tons respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 15.23%, 4.39%, 3.72%, and 12.61% [5] - The average selling prices for these products showed slight variations, with POY at 6,809 yuan/ton, FDY at 7,713 yuan/ton, DTY at 8,746 yuan/ton, and short fibers at 6,584 yuan/ton [5] Market Conditions - The report notes a decline in international oil prices, with the WTI average price at 75.20 USD/barrel, down 6.81% [5] - Weak downstream consumption and insufficient cost support in the industry have further weakened demand [5] - Despite the challenging market conditions, leading companies have maintained a strong pricing strategy [5]