JIANMIN GROUP(600976) 华福证券·2024-11-06 10:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company experienced revenue and profit declines in Q3 2024, with total revenue of 8.7 billion and a net profit of 0.8 billion, representing a 9% and 50% year-on-year decrease, respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on key product lines and has seen stable profit contributions from its subsidiary, Dapeng, which reported a profit of 0.6 billion in Q3 2024, up 12% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the strong demand for cultured cow bile, with the company being the exclusive producer, leading to consistent profit growth from this segment [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 28.8 billion, down 8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.2 billion, down 23% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been revised down to 40.8 billion, with expected growth rates of -3% for 2024, followed by 10% for 2025 and 2026 [1]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to 4.5 billion, with a projected decline of 14%, followed by increases of 27% and 24% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The OTC product line is focused on pure sales, effectively reducing channel inventory, with notable growth in market share for key products like Longmu Zhuanggu Granules and Bian Tong Capsules [1]. - The Rx product line emphasizes academic leadership and the enhancement of the agent team, with new product launches such as Qian Rui Wei Shu Capsules performing well in the market [1]. - The report notes that the company is actively preparing for new drug market access, with a completed reserve of agent customers for pediatric products [1].