CMBC(600016) 天风证券·2024-11-06 10:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Minsheng Bank with a target price of 4.63 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of 3.87 CNY [4][18]. Core Insights - Minsheng Bank's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 101.66 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.37%, but showing marginal improvement compared to earlier in the year [1][8]. - The net interest margin improved to 1.40% in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 1.38% in mid-2024, suggesting a potential easing of margin pressure in the future [1][10]. - The liquidity coverage ratio showed positive trends, reaching 154.3% in the third quarter, indicating enhanced capacity to handle potential operational pressures [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 143.3 billion CNY, with a slight growth rate of 1.77% expected in 2024 [18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline by 1.11% in 2024, followed by growth of 1.21% and 3.21% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [18][20]. - Asset Quality: - As of the third quarter of 2024, the non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.48%, with a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points from the first half of 2024 [16][17]. - The provision coverage ratio for non-performing loans was reported at 146.3% [16][17]. - Asset and Liability Management: - Interest-earning assets totaled 7.3532 trillion CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.2% [12][14]. - Interest-bearing liabilities reached 6.8398 trillion CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.0% [13][15]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report predicts the book value per share (BPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 13.22 CNY, 14.42 CNY, and 15.65 CNY, respectively [18][20]. - The target price of 4.63 CNY corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.35x for 2024 [18].