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双良节能:2024年三季报点评:硅片盈利能力修复,业绩环比大幅减亏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shuangliang Energy Saving (600481) with a target price of 9.17 RMB, compared to the current price of 8.00 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's silicon wafer business has shown a significant recovery in profitability in Q3 2024, with a 91.47% quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit attributable to the parent company [1] - The company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures have been effective, leading to a 28.6 percentage point quarter-on-quarter increase in gross margin to 11.3% in Q3 2024 [2] - The company has made breakthroughs in hydrogen energy equipment and is actively expanding in the global hydrogen market, with strategic partnerships in the UAE, Italy, and Sweden [2] Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.347 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 44.93%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 1.339 billion RMB [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.367 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 49.44%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.26% [1] - The company's operating cash flow turned positive in Q3 2024, reaching 205 million RMB, compared to -1.514 billion RMB in Q2 2024 [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be -1.561 billion RMB in 2024, 953 million RMB in 2025, and 1.371 billion RMB in 2026 [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 67.1% in 2025 and 38.6% in 2026 [3] Industry and Market Position - The company has fully equipped 1600 large-size furnaces, capable of producing M10, G12, and customized rectangular silicon wafers, which enhances its competitive position in the silicon wafer market [2] - The company has released the world's largest 5000Nm3/h alkaline water electrolyzer, showcasing its innovation capabilities in the green hydrogen sector [2]