SHCI(601225) 华福证券·2024-11-07 00:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1254.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 159.4 billion yuan, also down by 1.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 406.9 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The net profit for the same period was 53.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [1]. - The company is focusing on "coal-electricity integration" and has signed an asset transfer agreement with its controlling shareholder, which is expected to enhance profitability stability [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, coal business revenue was 1211.6 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 390.9 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year [2]. - The coal production volume for the first three quarters was 130 million tons, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year, with Q3 production at 41.37 million tons, up 2.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 6.2% year-on-year to 618 yuan per ton for the first three quarters, with Q3 price at 607 yuan per ton [2]. Profitability and Dividends - The company reported a gross profit of 420.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, down 8.1% year-on-year, with Q3 gross profit at 135.3 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2022 to 2024, with a dividend of 0.109 yuan per share announced for the mid-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 213.4 billion yuan, 232.3 billion yuan, and 242.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.20, 2.40, and 2.50 yuan per share [5]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable performance due to its high-quality coal resources and low-cost advantages in coal mining [5].