WYNN MACAU(01128) 东吴证券国际·2024-11-07 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wynn Macau (1128 HK) [1] Core Views - Wynn Macau's Q3 2024 performance fell short of expectations, with market share remaining stable [1] - The company aims to maximize EBITDA by focusing on product and service enhancements, despite intense competition in Macau [2] - Q3 2024 adjusted property EBITDAR margin declined QoQ, though it improved compared to Q3 2019 levels [3] - Revenue recovery in Q3 2024 reached 81 2% of Q3 2019 levels, with gaming and non-gaming net revenues recovering to 78 9% and 93 8% respectively [3] - Adjusted property EBITDAR for Q3 2024 was USD 260 million, down 6 2% QoQ but recovering to 87 3% of 2019 levels [3] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 gaming revenue reached USD 880 million, recovering to 70 4% of Q3 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue recovered to 25 3% of Q3 2019 levels [1] - Mass market (including slots) gaming revenue recovered to 106 7% of Q3 2019 levels [1] - Total revenue forecast for 2024-2026: HKD 28 737 million, HKD 31 039 million, and HKD 32 661 million respectively [1] Profitability - Adjusted property EBITDA forecast for 2024-2026: HKD 8 995 million, HKD 9 587 million, and HKD 10 018 million respectively [1] - EV/Adjusted property EBITDA multiples for 2024-2026: 7 89x, 7 40x, and 7 08x respectively [1] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: HKD 0 48, HKD 0 56, and HKD 0 64 respectively [1] Operational Metrics - Hotel occupancy rate reached 99% in July 2024 [2] - Daily operating expenses increased by 2 0% QoQ to USD 2 55 million in Q3 2024 [3] - Adjusted property EBITDAR margin was 30 2% in Q3 2024, down 1 5 percentage points QoQ but up 2 1 percentage points compared to Q3 2019 [3] Market Position - Wynn Macau's mass market recovery (106 7%) lagged behind the industry average (107 1%) in Q3 2024 [1] - VIP recovery (25 3%) was significantly below the industry average (42 1%) in Q3 2024 [1] - The company plans to optimize and expand F&B facilities and renovate Chairman's Club to enhance service quality [2] Valuation - Target price: HKD 8 2 [4] - Current price: HKD 6 00 [5] - 52-week range: HKD 4 74 - HKD 8 30 [5]