新凤鸣点评报告：Q3业绩短期承压，看好长丝景气复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% [11]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 16%, and a significant drop of about 57% in Q3 compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The polyester filament industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, as the expansion rate of new capacity is slowing down, and smaller companies are likely to exit the market due to stricter environmental regulations [2]. - The company is advancing the construction of four major bases, which is anticipated to enhance its growth potential in the future [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 61,469 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,086 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 628.4% compared to the previous year [1]. - The average selling prices for POY and FDY in the first three quarters of 2024 have shown slight declines, while the price of the main raw material MEG has increased by 11.71%, leading to a reduction in profit margins [2]. Industry Outlook - The long filament industry is expected to recover due to a decrease in new capacity additions and the elimination of outdated production capacities, which will improve the competitive landscape [2]. - The report highlights that from 2023 to 2027, there will be a significant increase in PTA production capacity, leading to a favorable supply situation for raw materials, which is beneficial for the polyester segment [2]. Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing its cost control capabilities through the development of its four major bases [3]. - Future growth is anticipated as the company continues to release new capacity and improve operational efficiencies [3].