中国船舶2024Q3点评：扣非净利润持续高增，毛利率环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shipbuilding [9][11]. Core Views - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a clear upward trend, and the company, as a leading player in the sector, is expected to see its performance improve ahead of its peers [6][8]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 56.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.35% [6][7]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 20.152 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 858 million yuan, down 57.26% year-on-year, although the non-recurring net profit turned positive at 773 million yuan [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s ship delivery volume and prices have both increased year-on-year, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability throughout the year. The decline in Q3 performance was primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year when a significant non-cash asset exchange occurred [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 reached 11.62%, an increase of 2.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a trend of improving margins since Q1 2024 [7][8]. - The company is expected to deliver 96 ships in 2024, an increase of 15 ships compared to the previous year, with a total deadweight tonnage of 8.0344 million DWT [7][8]. Industry Position - China's shipbuilding industry is solidifying its competitive position, with significant increases in new orders and completed shipbuilding volumes. In the first three quarters of 2024, China's completed shipbuilding volume reached 36.34 million DWT, up 18.2% year-on-year, and new orders increased by 51.9% [8]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's upward cycle, with a strong order backlog extending to 2028 and an increasing proportion of high-value orders [8]. Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is typically a peak delivery season, which is expected to accelerate revenue recognition. The company is anticipated to continue benefiting from rising order volumes and prices, leading to sustained profitability [7][8].