东航物流：Q3业绩大幅增长，旺季盈利弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in Q3 2024, with operating revenue reaching 6.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 790 million yuan, up 100.7% year-on-year [4][6] - The report highlights the continuation of favorable market conditions, with the average air freight price at Pudong Airport increasing by 33.0% year-on-year, and stable air freight volume and price on a quarter-on-quarter basis [4][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season for cross-border e-commerce, which is anticipated to accelerate profit release [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 17.67 billion yuan, a 24.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.07 billion yuan, up 24.1% year-on-year [4][6] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue from air express, ground integrated services, and comprehensive logistics solutions was 2.27 billion, 640 million, and 3.47 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 10.2%, and 48.2% [4][5] Profitability - The gross profit for Q3 2024 was 1.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 73.1%, with the gross profit margins for air express, ground services, and logistics solutions showing significant variations [5] - The report notes a decrease in period expenses and an increase in government subsidies, contributing to a substantial rise in profitability [5][6] Future Outlook - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to distribute 30%-50% of net profit attributable to shareholders as cash dividends, indicating a dividend yield of 3.4%-5.6% for 2024 [6] - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.03 billion, 3.50 billion, and 3.93 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.9, 7.7, and 6.9 [6]