CTGR(600905) 华源证券·2024-11-07 12:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by improved wind resources, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 15% [1][3] - The company reported a total power generation of 16.487 billion kWh in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.05% [1] - The company plans to invest in a large-scale new energy base in Xinjiang with a total capacity of 21.5 GW, which includes 8.5 GW of solar, 4 GW of wind, 4 GW of thermal power, and 5 GW of energy storage [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 48.5%, an increase of approximately 2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Investment Plans - The planned investment in the Xinjiang new energy base project totals 71.85 billion yuan, with a capital contribution of 25% [4] - The project is designed to integrate wind, solar, thermal, and energy storage, ensuring synchronized construction with the high-voltage direct current transmission project [4] Market Outlook - Recent favorable policies for green electricity are expected to enhance the value of renewable energy [4] - The report anticipates that administrative measures to stabilize electricity prices and enhance green certificate values will improve the return expectations for future renewable energy projects [4] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 6.72 billion, 7.01 billion, and 7.32 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -6.4%, 4.2%, and 4.5% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 21, 20, and 19 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]