SHCI(601225) 华创证券·2024-11-08 01:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225) with a target price of 29.04 CNY, compared to the current price of 24.40 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 125.43 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.94 billion CNY, also down by 1.5% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 13.9% year-on-year to 16.35 billion CNY [1]. - The report highlights a decline in self-produced coal production and sales in Q3 2024, attributed to increased safety regulations during the high-accident period of Q4. The average selling price of coal per ton was 618.3 CNY, down 6.2% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates stable coal prices in Q4 2024, with limited fluctuations due to sufficient inventory levels at downstream power plants [1]. - The acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power by the company is expected to enhance its integrated coal and power operations, improving profitability and creating a complete industrial chain from coal mining to electricity production [1]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 22.282 billion CNY, 23.478 billion CNY, and 24.734 billion CNY, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11x, 10x, and 10x [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected total revenue is 160.221 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to be 22.282 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 4.9% [2]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 236.558 billion CNY and a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.29% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.30 CNY, with a PE ratio of 11 [2].