CEA(600115) 光大证券·2024-11-08 01:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][8]. Core Views - The airline demand continues to recover, with RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) exceeding 2019 levels, showing a 40% year-on-year growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The company faces challenges with a 28% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3, primarily due to falling ticket prices [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control and the potential for improved profitability as oil prices are expected to decline in 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 22.291 billion - Total market capitalization: 90.057 billion - One-year price range: 3.38 to 4.49 CNY - Three-month turnover rate: 23.64% [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 102.6 billion CNY, a 20% increase year-on-year, but reported a net profit of -1.38 billion CNY [5]. - In Q3 2024, the company generated revenue of 38.4 billion CNY, a 6.23% year-on-year increase, but net profit decreased by 28.18% compared to the previous year [5]. Operational Metrics - RPK for the first three quarters increased by 40% year-on-year, with domestic RPK up 16% and international RPK up 198% [2]. - The company’s seat kilometer revenue decreased by 4.5% year-on-year to 0.46 CNY/ASK, while seat kilometer costs fell by 5.5% to 0.43 CNY/ASK [3]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be -2.224 billion CNY, 5.096 billion CNY, and 7.616 billion CNY respectively, with significant downward adjustments made to previous forecasts [4][6]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability driven by demand recovery and effective cost management [4].