HBYH(000422) 国泰君安·2024-11-08 06:24Investment Rating and Core Views - The report initiates coverage on Hubei Yihua with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of CNY 21.28, representing a 50% upside from the current price of CNY 14.18 [2] - Hubei Yihua is a leading chemical enterprise with improving profitability through upstream mineral resource integration, midstream raw material support, and downstream high-value product extension [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 17.44 billion, CNY 17.58 billion, and CNY 18.27 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits of CNY 1.01 billion, CNY 1.24 billion, and CNY 1.59 billion, respectively [4] Business and Industry Analysis - Hubei Yihua's main products include urea, phosphate fertilizers, and PVC, all of which face supply constraints due to strict capacity controls [4] - The fertilizer sector is expected to maintain its prosperity, with urea and phosphate fertilizer prices remaining stable due to steady demand growth in agricultural planting areas [4] - The chlor-alkali industry is likely to see optimized supply-demand dynamics, with PVC demand expected to recover due to potential real estate stimulus policies [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Hubei Yihua's revenue is projected to grow modestly from CNY 17.44 billion in 2024 to CNY 18.27 billion in 2026, with net profit margins improving from 9.1% to 13.9% over the same period [8] - The company's EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.93 in 2024 to CNY 1.46 in 2026, driven by improved profitability and asset integration [4] - Key financial ratios such as ROE are expected to rise from 13.1% in 2024 to 16.8% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Using PE valuation, Hubei Yihua is assigned a 2025 PE multiple of 18.0x, implying a fair value of CNY 20.58 per share [17] - Based on PB valuation, the company is given a 2025 PB multiple of 2.0x, suggesting a fair value of CNY 21.99 per share [17] - The final target price of CNY 21.28 is derived from the average of the PE and PB valuation methods, representing a 2025 PE of 18.6x [19] Strategic Developments and Asset Integration - Hubei Yihua is expected to further integrate high-quality assets, including the remaining 39.4% equity of Xinjiang Yihua and the 1.5 million-ton phosphorus mine in Jiangjiadun [4] - The company's relocation projects and technological upgrades are anticipated to enhance product profitability and cost efficiency [4] - The integration of Xinjiang Yihua's coal resources and Jiangjiadun's phosphorus resources will strengthen the company's cost advantages in fertilizer production [4]