凯立新材：收入下滑利润同比修复，投资HNBR进军新材料领域

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 14.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 1.143 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.5% to 64.04 million yuan [1]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 331 million yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year and 34.84% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit increased by 163.1% year-on-year to 17.26 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the falling prices of precious metals, particularly palladium, which saw a significant year-on-year drop of 23.12% [3]. - The company is investing in a hydrogenated nitrile butadiene rubber (HNBR) project, with a total planned investment of 350 million yuan, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in high-end materials [4]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.733 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.93% compared to 2023, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [5][10]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 110.49 million yuan, down from previous estimates due to changes in precious metal prices [4][9]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 13.62%, up 5.24 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a recovery in profitability despite revenue declines [2]. Business Operations - The company operates in three business models: sales, processing, and technical services, which have varying gross margin levels, impacting overall revenue and profitability [2]. - The increase in expenses, particularly in financial and sales costs, contributed to the overall profit decline, with total expenses rising by 422,000 yuan year-on-year in Q3 [1]. Market Context - The precious metals market, particularly palladium, is currently in a down cycle, which has adversely affected the company's revenue [3]. - The investment in the HNBR project is seen as a strategic move to diversify and strengthen the company's position in the high-end materials sector [4].