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怡和嘉业:Q3经营拐点确立,业绩有望重回高增轨道

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The company has established a turning point in its operations in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 220 million (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 33 million (up 21.8% year-on-year) for the third quarter [1]. - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 602 million (down 36.3% year-on-year), with a net profit of 125 million (down 53.7% year-on-year) [1]. - The U.S. ventilator market is gradually stabilizing, with Q3 revenue increasing by 15.7% compared to Q2, suggesting a potential for continued improvement in performance [1]. - Consumables accounted for 34.16% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, with consumable revenue reaching 206 million (up 31.77% year-on-year) [2]. - The overall gross margin improved to 50.2%, an increase of 4.91 percentage points compared to the same period last year, driven by the higher proportion of high-margin consumables [2]. - The company’s international business accounted for 60.55% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a steady increase in domestic business share [2]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report adjusts profit forecasts slightly downward due to exchange rate losses and increased expenses, projecting revenue growth rates of -12%, 26%, and 24% for 2024-2026, respectively [3]. - Net profit growth rates are projected at -32%, 50%, and 32% for the same period [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic ventilator manufacturer with significant market share in the U.S. and a broad global market presence, suggesting a substantial revenue ceiling and potential for valuation premium [3].