PETROCHINA(601857) 国泰君安·2024-11-08 12:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved its best operating performance in the first three quarters, continuing its strategy of "increasing reserves and production, stabilizing oil and increasing gas" while rapidly developing its new energy business and steadily advancing in overseas markets [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.66%. The Q3 net profit was 43.911 billion yuan, down 5.31% year-on-year but up 2.29% quarter-on-quarter. The performance met market expectations, marking the best historical performance for the same period [3] - The operating profits by segment for the first three quarters were as follows: oil and gas 52.6 billion yuan (+11.5% YoY), refining -1.28 billion yuan (-86.1% YoY), chemicals 0.25 billion yuan (-13% YoY), sales 2.8 billion yuan (-55.8% YoY), and natural gas sales 8.46 billion yuan (+58% YoY) [3] Production and Development - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 1.342 billion barrels, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, with marketable natural gas production at 3.80 trillion cubic feet, up 4.0% year-on-year. Domestic oil and gas equivalent production was 1.197 billion barrels, a 2.3% increase year-on-year [3] - The company strengthened cost control, maintaining an operational cost of 11.49 USD per barrel, thus preserving its cost advantage [3] Overseas Market Expansion - The company’s overseas business signed new contracts worth 16% more than the previous year, with external market share increasing by 37%. Contracts exceeding 100 million USD were signed in 11 countries, with new contracts in external markets accounting for 79% of the total [3] - Notable contracts include the signing of oil product sharing contracts in Suriname and a service contract in Kuwait valued at 6.2 billion yuan, marking the highest single contract value for Chinese oil drilling services abroad [3] Valuation and Price Target - The report maintains the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 0.95, 1.01, and 1.03 yuan respectively. The target price is set at 10.54 yuan based on an EV/EBITDA valuation, with the average EV/EBITDA of comparable companies at 5.57 [3][4]