YTO(600233) 光大证券·2024-11-08 18:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 49.369 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.13%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.930 billion yuan, an increase of 10.21% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 16.805 billion yuan, up 22.13% year-on-year, but down 1.94% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.943 billion yuan, an 18.06% increase year-on-year, but a 9.75% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The company continues to expand its international development strategy, benefiting from the growth of cross-border e-commerce and domestic policy support, with its international service network covering over 150 countries and regions [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's express delivery business volume reached 18.913 billion pieces in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.98%, and 6.711 billion pieces in Q3 2024, a growth of 28.16% year-on-year, exceeding the industry average growth rate by 8 percentage points [2]. - The average revenue per piece in Q3 2024 was approximately 2.20 yuan, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 9.63%, down 0.86 percentage points year-on-year [2]. International Development Strategy - The company is enhancing its international air coordination and integration, with a focus on expanding its international network through self-built and strategic partnerships [3]. - As of June 2024, the company has established a customs clearance network covering nearly 50 major ports in China and key overseas ports, with over 140 cargo flight routes opened [3]. - The company is actively developing premium express lines between China and countries such as Japan, Kazakhstan, Australia, and South Korea, while also expanding full-chain services to the US, UK, and Australia [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits attributable to the parent company to be 4.40 billion yuan, 4.99 billion yuan, and 5.64 billion yuan respectively [3].