奕瑞科技：业绩承压，长期发展向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit declined in 24Q1-Q3, with revenue at 13.56 billion yuan (-2.91% YoY) and net profit at 3.90 billion yuan (-9.88% YoY) [3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to delayed domestic medical equipment tenders and reduced demand for flat panel detectors [3] - The company's gross margin in 24Q3 decreased by 5.03 percentage points compared to the same period last year, partly due to increased equity incentive expenses [3] - The company's 14.5 billion yuan private placement project has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to expand production capacity for X-ray core components [3] - The company has mastered multiple core technologies, including non-crystalline silicon, IGZO, CMOS, and flexible substrate sensor technologies, which support its long-term growth [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.3, 8.3, and 9.7 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28x, 21x, and 18x [3] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue in 2023 was 1,864 million yuan, with a projected slight decline to 1,843 million yuan in 2024, followed by growth to 2,282 million yuan in 2025 and 2,692 million yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit in 2023 was 607 million yuan, expected to increase to 629 million yuan in 2024, 833 million yuan in 2025, and 965 million yuan in 2026 [5] - Gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 57.8% in 2023 to 55.7% in 2024, 55.0% in 2025, and 54.4% in 2026 [5] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 14.0% in 2023 to 15.5% in 2026 [5] Market and Industry Context - The company operates in the medical/medical device sector, with its main products being flat panel detectors used in medical X-ray machines, industrial non-destructive testing, and security checks [3] - The company is actively developing new markets overseas and strengthening relationships with major clients in the medical and industrial sectors [3] - The company's private placement project is expected to accelerate the localization of X-ray core components and enhance technological self-reliance [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 54.48x in 2023 to 18.16x in 2026 [7] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 7.66x in 2023 to 2.81x in 2026 [7] - The P/S ratio is forecasted to drop from 17.80x in 2023 to 6.51x in 2026 [7]